DECEMBER 13, MONDAY

RISK

Yesterday I read read in the New York Times that the United States is nearing 800,000 recorded deaths from Covid 19. 600,000 of them are people over 65. Especially vulnerable are people with underlying conditions like diabetes, being overweight or have heart disease. I am 84, twenty years over 65 and check all the boxes except heart disease.

So what is my risk of dying of Covid 19 and how should I behave? Let the rationalization begin for me which is what everyone does. My diabetes is mild, my mother was overweight and died at 98, I feel like I‘m in moderately good health. Why should it be me?

One thing I have learned over the years is that none of us are very good at estimating risk. We use all kinds of intuitive measures, most of which are useless. I‘ve had to deal with that when taking students to India. What was the risk of disease and was it worth taking a $300 vaccination for a disease we probably wouldn‘t get? Was it safe to drink the water. We learned it wasn‘t when everyone shared their bottled water and all got sick together because we felt friends were safe. There were bombs going off in Sri Lanka‘s civil war on most of our trips there. I decided that there was almost no chance that we we would randomly pass a randomly placed bomb when it went off. We were in much greater risk of being in an automobile wreck in Sri Lanka’s crazy traffic. But we are used to traffic accidents and scared to death of bombs. The one student who came within an inch of dying was jumping over a fence and slipped.

People are afraid to travel when there is a threat. Home seems much safer. Susie and I arrived in Paris on the day that the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks happened and a number of workers on a satirical newspaper were killed. We saw signs all over saying Je suis Charlie, I am Charlie. I thought they were a perfume ad. When we called home to check in Kathe was frantic with worry but where we were the sun was shining and people drinking wine at outdoor cafes. Distant places seem more dangerous than staying close to home.

I was just in sunny Paros, Greece, and everything felt just fine. And Germany had strict preventative measures. I felt quite safe in both places even though the German death infection rate was going up. But so was the American infection rate. Was it safe to come home?

1 in 100 older Americans have died of Covid this year. More have died of cancer and heart disease. Everytime I read the paper someone in their 80‘s has died. It is apparently a very risky time for me.

I have been wondering about people who won‘t get vaccinated for political reasons. Some see a plot in vaccinations. They are angry at the same class of people who are telling them to get vaccinated so they won‘t do it. Their righteous anger makes them feel good. And yet they are most at risk, apparently, of death. They must be balancing the risk of death against the threat of the liberals and see giving in to the liberals as a greater threat. That is one possible calculation. Other people say what will happen, will happen, and don‘t worry about it. Others take one cocktail or another and hope for the best.

The biggest risk of injury or death seems to me to be getting in a traffic accident. They happen every day in Asheville. But we are used to traffic accidents and worry about terroists who have never raised their head here.

I am planning to go to Morocco in February and Paris in April and England in May if they will let me in. What should I do?

So this is my rationalization. It is established knowledge that the most important things to do to protect against Covid are to wear a mask, keep 6 feet distance, wash your hands and don‘t meet indoors in congregate settings even wearing your mask. Everyone knows that.

But in Greece I had dinner with two people, Efi and Wolfgang, several times without wearing a mask. In Germany where I knew many more people I ate meals and gathered with people I knew and liked, all vaccinated, a number of times. Back home I meet with family and friends again and again in their homes or mine without masks. According to the accepted wisdom I am putting myself at risk every time I do this. What I am learning is that people who know and like each other feel safe with each other and feel offended if one of their number wears a mask. What seems perfectly obvious to me is that the more people I know in a place, and interact with, the more at risk I am. I am much more likely to get sick from a friend than someone I barely know. The greatest risk is right here.

I do know where I am safest. I am safest if I stay in my house, don‘t let anyone in, and don‘t go out. That is obvious. But I don‘t do it. I rationalize or I put the risks out of my mind. I want to be with friends and family. I deliberately blind myself.

So perhaps the safest place for me is somewhere where I know no one, will be invited by no one and will invite no one, where I will not be tempted to take off my mask or to get close to people or to meet in congregate settings. The safest place for me is Morocco or the Himalayas and it is safest to not come home again until Covid 19 has vanished. But I can‘t do that, either. I was safest in Greece, less safe in Germany and am even less safe in Swannanoa.

There is the question of the plane rides, but they are said to be fairly safe because the air is constantly recycled. A bus ride in Morocco would put me at risk, but I‘ll be wearing a mask. And of course no one wants to die far from home with no one to hold their hand. But it is only 1 out of 100, pretty good odds, so I think I‘ll go.

Oh, and one more rationalization. Times winged chariot is hurrying near, time is running out, people are dropping dead all around me. Any day my knees or hips or heart could give out and I’ll have no choice but to sit at home. If I am going to travel, which enlivens me, I have to do it right now, not five years from now. I can’t wait the pandemic out. I had a great time in Greece and a marvelous time in Germany. I’ve got to go now, and going away might even make me safer.

That is my rationalization. What‘s yours for staying here and partying unmasked with family and friends?